Tuesday, August 28, 2007

Celebrity Gossip: Pulling Back the Curtain

It's happening. The Rudy Word has sunken to the depths of celebrity gossip. But in this blog it will be to debunk some recent sensationalism, and in future cases, if any, it will be to lampoon celebrities for their misdeeds (such as suggesting that Lindsay Lohan have every orafice on her body sewn shut to prevent her from ingesting drugs). In this blog I will be addressing the absolute hogwash printed in yesterday's Daily News about Paul McCartney.

The article would like you to believe that Paul McCartney spent the better part of the last two shows at the East Hampton Social (James Taylor, and this past weekend, Tom Petty) trying to mack on Christie Brinkley and Renee Zellweger, respectively. Unfortunetly, completely unsubstantiated and intentionally presumptuous rumors pass for news in the business of celebrity gossip. Anyone who was actually there, as I was (had the benefit of working the event where he was spotted) knows how fabricated it all is.

The article acts as though the close-talking between Brinkley and McCartney, and Zellweger and McCartney was a sign of intimacy. There's oinly one problem with that theiry: they were at a freaking rock concert. Everyone was close talking because it was loud, duh!

The tabloids say the two were flirting with McCartney. That's a no brainer. Who wouldn't flirt with him? He's Paul fucking McCartney! I would flirt with him!

The fact is, McCartney was by far the most gracious celebrity guest at the event. He asked for a very minimal security detail and basically invited the guests to come up and speak with him. He was in the crowd talking with everyone, treating everyone else like the celebrities.

I saw him just as he was leaving. The concert had ended and I was walking through the sofa-seating section. Paul turned toward the stairs just as I saw him. We locked eyes. I think I gave him a nod and a smile (but I couldn't even remember my own name), and then he walked down the stairs and toward the exit. He passed a group of people talking, turned toward them and did a Chuck Berry-style air guitar (leaving them giddy and dumbfounded) and then exited through the tunnel, BY HIMSELF! And I also know that he drove off, in his Rolls, BY HIMSELF.

So much for the fabricated rumors. That is the actual extent to which, even Paul McCartney's, celebrity life is fascinating. It's not. Never believe anything you read on the celebrity gossip pages, unless it is this one.

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Thursday, August 16, 2007

[Economics] Why the Credit Industry is Ruining Our Economy

Economics during the Bush-Cheney administration seems to have revolved around a singular phrase, "Debts don't matter." This seems to be the thinking within the administration, and it certainly helps to explain why markets have experienced a volatile roller coaster of ups and downs in recent weeks. The concept has made it easy to point to certain things and say, "Look how great the economy is doing," while real people are suffering financial hardships. This because the credit/debt industry can easily make it look like money is moving down the trough without actually creating usable wealth.

The most visible lending industry, the credit card industry, is based on two hypocritical ideas: 1. Customers that pay their bills on time are less valuable than customers who cannot pay back their debts, as those who pay on time do not rack up interest; and 2. Never having needed to borrow money puts you in worse standing than having borrowed money and not beeen able to repay the debt in full. In other words, no credit rating is worse than a bad credit rating.

This hypocrisy is what has led to a series of deceptive practices, which are finally coming under scrutiny from the government (of course only as economy seems to be on the brink of a recession). The New York State Consumer Protection Board has asked New York State consumers to submit their stories about credit card deception in an effort to mount a case against the credit card companies (For New York residents visit this site). As part of this effort, New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo has forced a $4.5 million settlement with First Premier Bank over deceptive practices. The New York Times covers.

But First Premier customers aren't the only ones. In fact, only six months after receiving a Capital One credit card, I have seen some of these deceptive practices first hand. Two months ago, after the first billing period in which I charged over $300, my bill was ten days late in reaching my house. When I called to find out why it had not arrived on schedule, Capital One told me that they were refiguring the billing cycle, and that many customers were experiencing the same delay. What this reconfiguration entails specifically is that for that month the billing period was extended four extra days (from originally ending on Monday the 15th to instead ending Friday the 19th). In addition to this change, the bills, I was told, were no longer processed and mailed within two days of the end of the billing period, but were instead being mailed ten days after the end of the billing period, all of this without change to the due date on the charges. Thereby, my overall payment period (the time from which I receive the bill to the time which it is due) went, within a matter of two months, from a full four weeks to pay, down to two weeks to pay, an obvious effort to squeeze a late payment out of me.

In the meantime, another deception was occuring. On my first bill for the extended period, I was charged a $30 overlimit fee for having exceeded my $500 spending limit (and I will just forget the fact that it is Capital One's limit, which they allowed me to exceed as a "courtesy" to me they say). I paid the fee and simply cursed them silently in my head. However, on my latest bill, I was charged another overlimit fee despite the fact that I charged nowhere close to $500 during that time. When I called to ask why, I was told that though I had not charged more during that billing period, I had made those charges before paying the previous bill, which exceeded $500. Unfortunetly for Capital One, I am not an idiot. Looking carefully at my bill, the two charges that forced the overlimit fee in the new month were made on the 18th and 19th, two dates which both occurred within the previous billing period, and yet, which suddenly appeared on the next statement side-by-side with a new, and erroneous, overlimit fee. Thanks to my very loud and argumentative voice, the overlimit fee was dropped, as a "one-time courtesy" (read another's concern with Capital One, and the response, in the New York Post's Dear John column from last week).

What is interesting about such deceptive practices is not simply that they are widespread, but that they are actually the foundation of the entire credit industry, mainly because the industry is based on the aforementioned hypocrisies. Let's face it, generally speaking, lending money is not a very good business to be in if your customers are smart and pay in full and on time with little or no interest. Yet the deceptive practices and poor lending standards are what has led us to our current economic volatility, where lending is being extremely tightened as a result of these hypocritical and irresponsible practices. The New York Post covered last week's stock market plummets with this angle.

By now, just about everyone is familiar with subprime mortgages, as this has been widely pointed to as causing the economic downturn, specifically in the housing market. The subprime market is a eupemism for people with poor or risky credit ratings. The philosophy of lending to people with poor credit is fairly simple: Those with poor credit are subject to higher interest rates, so even if they cannot pay you on time, or in full, their debt to you will increase with no extra cost to you; and as long as they cannot pay you, you, for all intents and purposes, own them; their money is automatically your money....until they claim bankruptcy.

Interestingly enough, one of things that has kept the subprime crash at bay, was a recent change in the bankruptcy law, which essentialy favored lenders over the debtors. This help to keep people from claiming bankruptcy. And yet, the foundation of the law exists, essentially, within the frame of mind that corporations are more worth protecting than consumers. The only problem with this is that, at the end of the day, all economies need consumers much much more than they need corporations, or even lenders, so such a policy can only delay an economic downturn.

The idea that loaning money is necessarily advantageous to the economy, regardless of the debtor, is a very antiquated notion. John Perkins, in his book, Confessions of Economic Hit Man, traces state-lending practices and corporate manipulation in third-world investment, and demonstrates fairly well how, ultimately the lowest consumer and laborer is as, if not more, valuable in creating a stable and fruitful economy (though I must note that not everything in the book should be taken at face value despite providing a good picture of how manipulative practices inform the lending industry).

The problem with subprime lending (as with the type demonstrated in Confessions of an Economic Hit Man) is what happens when the debtor cannot pay you back. While it may seem that, if you can cover the debt, it is more valuable to own someone financially than to receive the money they owe you, it is in fact a globally and economically irresponsible policy. Now we are paying the price for such lending. As part of the stock market stumble last week, a major French bank, BNP Paribas, suspended three of its securities fund as a direct result of problems in the U.S. subprime mortgage market (Read AP coverage on AMNewYork's site for more information on how our housing market is effecting global finances). Under a global economy, when lenders continue their fundamentally irresponsible practices, international markets suffer, not simply because lenders themselves ecome delinquent (American Home Mortgage Investment Corp., for example, has just filed for bankruptcy), but also because the lowest level consumers pull their spending from the market too. In other words, the panic and delinquency occurs in corporate banks at the top and poor consumers at the bottom in independent fashions that slowly, but surely, close in on the middle class here, and branch out into markets around the world. What seemed like a two-way street between corporate lenders and subprime borrowers, has actually proved itself to be a rotary encompassing consumers of all levels and markets all over the world.

And such practices also only further damage the United States global standing, particularly as U.S. leaders in the Bush Administration look to our national debt with an apathetic eye toward our lenders (ie China). Daniel Gross makes a good point in Newsweek's Contrary Indicator column from this week, "Chagrined lenders have been gripped by the sudden realization that debt can, and does, go bad...Credit, the fuel that powers the economy, is becoming more scarce and expensive."

What we should see from these developments is that making risky loans as a means of artificially boosting the economy, creates an economy that is only as strong as those taking the loans. Similarly, borrowing, with no concern for our national debt, makes this country as delinquent as the subprime market, and could easily (though probably not quickly) lead to a lending squeeze on our national government.

So why am I still being targted with deceptive practices by Capital One when such practices are not only coming under state and fedral scrutiny, but are also, in part, directly responsible for an upcoming recession? The reason is that such companies only know to cling to past practices (higher interest rates and increased fees) in times of crisis. Instead, we should be demanding a return to responsible credit: credit that can boost entrepreneurship and provide folks at the bottom the means for establishing true wealth, and one of the best ways to send this message is take our national debt very seriously and to demand an end to deceptive and irresponsible practices in the industry that target the very consumers making the world economy go round.

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Thursday, August 2, 2007

[Politics] Obama: The Foreign Policy Whipping Boy

When it comes to the discussion of foreign policy in the campaign for president, it seems that Barack Obama cannot get a break. In fact, he has become the whipping boy of both Democrats and Republicans because of the things he has said. Ironically, his has been the most decisive stance on foreign policy matters, that is, the least nuanced and unclear position in the race. Last week, Obama said that he would be willing to meet unconditionally with leaders of Iran and Syria, for which he was lambasted as weak and naive, and this week, he has said that he would be willing to use U.S. forces to hit Taliban and al-Qaeda targets in Pakistan if President Pervez Musharraf would not take action. For this he was also attacked by many. The Washington Post has coverage.

Again, the irony of it is that these are the most decisive foreign policy statements I have heard so far in the debate. Other candidates discussing foreign policy matters, including Iraq (for which Obama is one of the few to present a plan to leave), candidates have generally been making statements that begin with phrases like , "We have to be careful..." and "What we don't want..." At a time when President Bush is criticized for everything but his decisiveness, you would think Obama's certitude would be considered an asset. Certainly, if a Republican, like Rudy Giuliani, had made such statements about Pakistan, he would have been heralded as decidedly tough on terrorism.

[And let's just first be clear that anyone pretending that our military is simply standing on the Afghan border to Pakistan with a pair of binoculars, and have never once crossed that border for an operation, are naive. So, any criticism of Obama's plan is completely premature to a full disclosure of what our military has already been engaging in (and rightfully so) with regard to Pakistan. Of course, this does lend itself to making Joe Biden's criticism, that "The way to deal with it is not to announce it, but to do it," more apt (though it is certainly understandable that Obama wants to be clear that he has an actionable stance on dealing with terrorism at a time when he is being attacked for being weak).]

What is also ironic is that people who voted to invade Iraq in a much more belligerent (and overly extensive) manner, now say Obama is over-stepping. While it is true that Pakistan is an ally, it is not a stabilizing force in the region, versus Saddam Hussein, who, for all of his immoral qualities, seemed to make the Middle East more stable than it has been since his ouster. In other words, the value of an ally can be measured not only by how they help us, but also in what kind of stability they bring to regions, particularly ones of our interest. So, if Pakistan is harboring Osama bin Laden, even if it is not by their government's own wishes, what gives them a greater right to sovereignty than Afghanistan, or Iraq for that matter?

The fact is, not all allies are created equal. Pakistan and Britain are both allies of the U.S., but we should never mistake our relationship with Britain for our relationship with Pakistan simply because we use the same word to describe them. Calling Pakistan an ally is a bit like calling your travel agent a friend out of convenience. It is a strategic, not an idealogical, alliance. As such, we should treat it strategically.

Pervez Musharaf is not making attacks on Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters a top priority because it is causing a major rift in his country. Pakistan is currently experiencing instability because of Musharaf's alliance with the U.S., which many Pakistani Muslim fundamentalists are extrmely upset about. Thus, for him to crack down on al-Qaeda in his country could cause it even more instability. Meanwhile, not to oust those enemies in Pakistan could mean greater instability in the U.S. People (and not the other Democratic front runners, Hillary Clinton and John Edwards who seem to agree with the idea) have criticized Obama's plan as provoking a nuclear naton, and also an ally. But what if Pakistan became overrun by al-Qaeda and Taliban loyalists precisey because their forces were not disrupted? Wouldn't that make it even more likely that such forces could achieve the worst case scenario and acquire a nuclear weapon?

Thus, getting rid of al-Qaeda and the Taliban in Pakistan should be a top priority. But how can we do this without causing major upheaval?

Firstly, we should not be going after fighters inside Pakistani borders at the expense of Pakistan's relative stability. And, actually, one of the best ways to do that, may be to give our alliance with them the appearance of strife. If the U.S. were to (seemingly) act unilaterally with operations inside the Pakistani border, that could give Musharraf a reason to express deep anger with the U.S. while allowing us to root out major al-Qaeda and Taliban leaders. Afterward, we could pay retribution to Pakistan (by giving them tanks or planes, or making some other concession) and seemingly do so under pressure from Musharraf so that he could save face in his own country.

Obviously, it could never be as simple as I have suggested, but the point remains that we must be strong and decisive and we shouldn't let the word "ally" dictate whether or not we make a pro-active effort to capture Osama bin Laden and stop al-Qaeda from gaining power (which they are successfully doing according to the latest National Intelligence Estimate).

Politics is perception, and now, maybe more than ever, we need ot play to the perception as much as to the reality. Thus, our best bet may not to have Pakistan as an out-and-out ally, as this is damaging to Musharraf's ability to control his country, but to have an alliance that has the appearance of some animosity.

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Man-Animal War: Orangutans Playing Charades

BBC News is reporting that researchwer at St. Andrews University have discovered an advanced form of communication used by orangutans that resembles a game of charades. It is a skill which the researchers say all great apes may have and which may have developed millions of years ago. Read about it here.

Why should you be worried? Because "call and response" and a system of communication and intelligence gathering based on feedback is the foundation of a strategic military assault. Believe me, the great apes are only a few had gestures away from making war. I'll demonstrate:

Hand gesture:
"Stirring?"
Shake of the head.
"Fishing?"
Shake of the head.
"Movie?"
Nod yes.

Open palm:
"Five words?"
Nod yes.

Two fingers:
"Second word?"
Nod yes.

Circular hand gesture:
"Whole?"
Shake of the head.
"Circle?"
Shake of the head.
"Sphere?"
Getting warmer.
"Planet?"
Nod yes.

Open palm:
"Fifth word?"
Nod yes.

Finger to chest:
"Me?"
Shake of the head.
"You?"
Shake of the head.

Gesture to everyone:
"Us?"
Getting warmer.
"Apes?"
Nod yes.

"Blank Planet Blank Blank Apes"
"The Planet of the Apes!"

And ever so simply the war begins. Charlton heston showed us the aftermath. This is how it begins. You have been warned.

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